What the Heck is a No-Fly Zone?

Hello and welcome, once again, to Will’s Dumb Brain. Astute readers might have noticed something slightly different about the title of this week’s article: after 63 pieces titled “On ___” I’ve decided to introduce a new subcategory of essay: the “What the Heck is___”. In these articles I’ll do my very best to distill down a complex, dense, jargon-y, or otherwise not super approachable topic into the usual 500-ish words. Let me know in the comments at the bottom if this is at all interesting or if I should stick to complaining about how there are too many different kinds of spoons, knives, and forks! (And for the record, these essays won’t always be about geo-political conflicts in Eastern Europe)

If you’ve been following the news in the past few days/weeks, you’ve probably noticed a growing call for a “No-Fly Zone” over Ukraine (or just humanitarian corridors within) coming from everyone from Ukrainian President Zelensky to US Senators to people on Instagram with little to no understanding of what a no-fly zone really is. Well, dear friends. I’m here to delve into to what a no-fly zone really is and what its consequences entail so that you may make an educated decision as to whether you’re in favor of one or not.

A no-fly zone (or NFZ from here on out), in simple terms, is an area where a government or military power has declared certain aircraft may not fly. If the prohibited aircraft enter the area they risk being shot down. NFZs exist all over the world, including over the White House or in 2012 over the Olympic games in London.

Recently, lobbying for an NFZ over Ukraine has grown louder and louder, and why wouldn’t it? Russian forces have near complete air superiority over the Ukrainian forces and have used that power to inflict huge amounts of damage to military and civilian targets alike. So, in theory, closing the skies (as some call it) to even the battlefield between the two sides, makes perfect sense and may even be a moral obligation for NATO. This, however, is not a theoretical world, and as such, the practical requirements and consequences of an NFZ must be considered.

First off, an NFZ requires enforcement, otherwise it is simply a request. This means planes patrolling the area, and since Ukraine’s air force is outmanned nearly 15 to 1 this would require outside forces, ostensibly NATO. All well and good so far, but as soon as Russia violates the NFZ and comes into conflict with NATO aircraft…bad stuff happens.

Secondly, in enforcing an NFZ, a country must protect their own planes, which often times means destroying anti-air emplacements that could threaten the patrolling aircraft. This would mean not only clearing out the weapons that have been moved into Ukraine but also those INSIDE of Russia close enough to the border to make enforcing the NFZ difficult or impossible.

So far, the world’s western powers, have stayed away from direct military conflict in the Russo-Ukrainian war because to do so would move us miles closer to a WWIII scenario and possible nuclear war. NATO and the US in particular has done what they think is appropriate to aid Ukraine without entering the conflict themselves. To enact an NFZ would change that, in all likelihood, and would ratchet up tensions between Russia and its adversaries.

In closing, a no-fly zone, in theory, would protect Ukrainian civilians and give their military a fighting chance to turn back the Russian invasion. It would also, in theory, enter opposing nuclear powers into direct conflict with Russia. The vast majority of polls show Americans are heavily in favor of a no-fly zone but then are heavily opposed to what it would take to enforce a no-fly zone, now and in the historically, which is why I wanted to do my best to explain what an NFZ is and its possible consequences as neutrally and succinctly as possible.

This concludes the first of the “What the Heck is…” essays. In the future they could be about anything from Metaverses to Crypto to various labor strikes to whatever I’ve tried to learn about recently. So, let me know if you loved it or hated it or felt completely neutral about it because I’m just out here trying stuff!